THE FIRST GLOBAL REVOLUTION

By K Hogben

STEP 1. Never in the course of history has humankind been faced with so many threats and dangers. King and Schneider (1991) briefly outline a number of global factors which are interdependent, interactive, and constitute what they call the world problematique. Included in this category are: the population explosion in the Southern countries; inequitable economic growth; the precarious nature of global food and water security; governance and the capacity to govern; the probability of deep change and disturbance of world climate; population growths and migrations; doubts on energy availability; environmental destruction; and the vast changes taking place in the geopolitical situation.

At this coming turn of the century, humankind is overwhelmed by the scope of the phenomena coming at it from all sides because traditional structures, governments and institutions can no longer manage the problems in their present state. "Order in society is determined by the cohesion of it's members. Until the middle of our century this was normally assured by a natural patriotism, a sense of belonging to the community, reinforced by a moral discipline exerted by religion and respect for the state and it's leaders, however remote they might be from the people. Generalized religious faith has meanwhile evaporated in many countries; respect for the political process has also faded, leading to indifference if not hostility, due partly to the media and partly to the inadequacy of the political parties in facing real problems." (P.77).

To make things worse, these "archaic and unsuitable structures are set in a true moral crisis. The disappearance of value systems, the questioning of traditions, the collapse of ideologies, the absence of a global vision, the limits of current practices of democracy, confirm the void confronting societies. Individuals feel helpless, caught, as it were, between the rise of previously unknown perils on the one hand and, on the other hand, an incapacity to answer the complex problems in time and to attack the roots of evil, not just it's consequences." (P. 96).

STEP 2. King and Schneider introduce the concept of the resolutique, "an approach which necessitates a simultaneous and comprehensive attack on all problems at every level; coherent in that it attempts to look at the consequences of possible solutions to particular elements of difficulty for all, or as many as possible of the others." (P.105).

"The primary agents of the resolutique are those that will allow individuals and societies to learn how to adapt to the changes that are constantly modifying the face of the planet. Adjustment to change is the fundamental challenge that we find underlying all the constituent elements of the problematique (and is) a challenge addressed to all the people of our planet, whatever their culture, traditions, religion or philosophical option, whatever their training." (P. 157). Among the agents of the resolutique, there are three that the individual can use to go through this transitional period. They are: the learning

challenge of education, the contribution of science and new technologies, and the role of mass media.

"The education of every human being at any age must embrace multiple functions that mark out the learning process and guide it towards the immediate future, with the following objectives: acquiring knowledge; structuring intelligence and developing the critical faculties; developing self-knowledge and awareness of one's gifts and limitations; learning to overcome undesirable impulses and destructive behaviour; permanently awakening each person's creative and imaginative faculties; learning to play a responsible role in the life of society; learning to communicate with others; helping people to adapt to and prepare for challenge; enabling each person to acquire a global view of the world; training people to become operational and capable of problem solving." (P.160-1).

The challenges facing the contribution of science and new technologies indicate the need for substantial reorientation of research and development programmes and a radical reordering of priorities. "Effort should be put into investigation concerning the human individual, his nature, motivations, potentialities and limitations, as well as social, educational and other structures which project human qualities and defects." (P.167). In addition, "sophisticated models of the global climate system have shown it's extreme complexity and the need for still more detailed knowledge concerning regional and local impacts of human activity - greatly necessary if we are to foresee the consequences of

earth-warming and the other macro pollution." (P.167). Also, research should be "aimed at solving or alleviating many of the contemporary problems and the innovations would be both remedial and preventive." (P.167). To illustrate, "there is an immediate need for a massive campaign on energy conservation and efficiency" (P.167),and "secondly, it will be necessary to give very high priority to an international programme of research for alternative energy sources and for corresponding work in individual countries." (P.168). "Beyond this, search must be made for new, clean technologies and for the cleaning up of traditional processes." (P.168). Finally, "it is generally accepted that a major, perhaps the major, need in the development of the South is the creation of an indigenous capacity in each country for research and development." (P.168).

"The general role of the mass media is too new for us to be able to draw definitive conclusions about it. That is why it is fitting to consider the question of the true power of mass media and what role they play and can play in building a new global society. The answer necessitates a dialogue with communication professionals to find out what role they are ready to assume, not only for a better public comprehension of the world problematique but also in the challenge of the resolutique." (P.170).

King and Schneider's model proposes the utilization of these agents of the resolutique in the manner described to combat all the overwhelming complexities of the problematique, but specifically three zones that demand immediate attack. "The first

of these is the reconversion from a military to a civil economy." (P.106). "The second theme is global warming and the energy problem." (P.106). "Thirdly, there is the development issue....it is urgent in the light of the relative failures of the past, the impasse, if not confrontation, in the North/South dialogue and the need for new strategies and thinking if any sort of world harmony is to be achieved." (P.106).

STEP 3. The data obtained by observation involving the real world objects of study are much too numerous to cite as individual statistics and for the purpose of this analysis it is not necessary to do so. Instead, it would seem prudent to reference the results that King and Schneider concluded from their analysis of the individual statistics.

The central implication of the existing data posits "the human race, in pursuit of material gain by exploitation of nature, is racing towards destruction of the planet (as habitable by us) and itself." (P.xix). The primary contributing factors include: a rapidly increasing population; the precarious nature of global food and water security; existing and potential energy shortages; environmental contaminants produced and emitted by humankind coupled with the resulting climactic changes; inequitable economic growth between nations; and the inability of the existing political structures, persons and attitudes to rectify the aforementioned situations.

STEP 4. The prediction is that "there is a bright and fulfilling future awaiting humanity if it has the wisdom to reach out and grasp the difficulties ahead, or a slow and painful decline if it neglects to do so." (P. 71).

STEP 5. The problem that occurs in evaluating whether the data agrees with the prediction lies in the time lag between the existing data and what the data would be if the model proposed by King and Schneider was implemented. In this case, the trends in the existing data act only as guides for creating a model that attempts to reverse those trends. As a result, existing data is irrelevant in evaluating whether the data agrees with the prediction because the relevant data (that which may or may not agree with the prediction) exists only in the future. Therefore, the data are inconclusive (specifically, non-existent) regarding the fit between the model and the real world.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

King, A., Schneider, B. (1991), The First Global Revolution, Simon & Schuster.